...The phrase "out of nowhere" is truly appropriate for the story of former Tennessee Republican Sen. Fred Thompson's unofficial entry into the presidential race. Yet at this point, Thompson's appeal clearly has more to do with his opponents' deficiencies than it does with any appeal or accomplishment he has himself made. On the one hand, Thompson fills a void on the right. Polls show that already somewhere between 12 and 14 percent of Republicans want to back him instead of the top three candidates.
On the other hand, Thompson is enjoying this success despite not only his own inaction, but also the fact that he remains virtually unknown among Republican voters. A full 67 percent of Republicans polled by Rasmussen this week had no impression or no opinion of Thompson (the number was similar for adults nationwide). Even his role on NBC's "Law & Order" -- which is the best-known thing about Thompson -- is named by just 11 percent of Republicans. (Interestingly, the poll suggests that "Law & Order" has a more Democratic audience.)
And so just as Thompson is running within two points of Sen. McCain, he is also a virtual unknown. This gives rise to two questions: First, who is Thompson? Is he really the conservative hero he is now made out to be? Second, how much upside does this give Thompson, and where does he draw his support from?
Republican activists have complained for months that none of the "Big Three" contenders -- Giuliani, McCain and Romney -- fits the model of a conservative leader for a conservative party. The party faithful have been waiting for another Ronald Reagan. Nobody mentioned Thompson as this "messiah" until he appeared March 11 on "Fox News Sunday with Chris Wallace" and announced that he was "giving some thought" to a presidential run. Then even Thompson was surprised when the first Gallup Poll that included his name (March 23-25) gave him 12 percent.
More important than the polling data is his backing within the political community. Buyer's remorse is expressed by several House members who had endorsed Romney. Thompson will be traveling to the Hill this month to seek support there among those who fear that, wealthy as his campaign may be after the first quarter, Romney is stuck at 3 percent and unlikely to seize the nomination. The polls suggest that Thompson is drawing support away from Romney and Giuliani, and to a lesser degree from McCain.
Another major question is whether Thompson is really a conservative. He has a solidly conservative voting record from his eight years in the Senate, with the exception of his position on campaign finance reform, which he has since renounced. But his background as the protégé of moderate former Sen. Howard Baker (R-Tenn.) causes more concern, as does his failure while in the Senate to hire conservative staff.
But as the famous story goes, Thompson does not have to outrun the bear, he just has to outrun his companions to get away alive. None of the three leading Republicans has been so consistently conservative as Thompson on tax policy, national security and abortion. That means that Thompson is still coming off as an electable conservative -- and he will certainly run as a conservative...
