Thursday, February 01, 2007

Is Belarus Really Making Changes?

Just one day after being thrown out of its offices, the Belarusian Helsinki Committee, one of the last human rights organizations permitted in Belarus by its totalitarian President, Alexander Lukashenka, has learned it can return...for awhile anyway.

How come?

Well, perhaps it's because Lukashenka is finally realizing that he needs to develop at least some rapprochement with the West, especially the European Union. After all, the recent problems Belarus had with Russia over the supply (and transport) of natural gas has revealed that their historic partnership (Lukashenka has desperately wanted it to be an official "union") is increasingly weak. In fact, the fiery rhetoric of the Belarusian president flamed up two days ago against the Kremlin, saying that Russia was out "to choke and crush Belarus." Hmm. Lukashenka flared on, "We are simply being abused. You can see what is going on now in the media. But they are doing this under instructions from the Kremlin. This I can tell you for certain."

But without Russia, where can Belarus go for friends? Cuba, Red China and Venezuela are too far away.

Thus, Lukashenka's newest sop to Europe. "We recognize that our policy of developing in multiple directions has been turned into a single direction. It is very important for us to sort out our relations with the West.... Europe has seen that it, too, depends on Belarus in terms of energy supplies. Europe now views Belarus in a new way. A new situation has emerged."

But, of course, Lukashenka talks like this every once in awhile anyway. And no new situation has emerged at all -- save Belarus' lengthening list of severe problems caused by the government's inefficiency, corruption, and discredited Communism. Thus, perhaps, the change of heart over the BHC's presence is to suggest some kind of sacrifice.

But Europe is going to require a lot more than one "stage act" event to be convinced that Lukashenka is really looking for honesty, fairness, openness and a move towards democracy. A lot more.